how china’s tariffs crushed u.s. agriculture

For years China was the engine of U.S. farm exports. Six out of every ten soybeans grown here ended up there. In 2024 that meant $12.6 billion in sales.

Then Beijing raised tariffs to more than 100 percent. Imports from the U.S. vanished. Brazil filled the gap almost overnight.

American farmers were left with full silos and empty bank accounts.

déjà vu: the 2018 trade war returns

This is not the first time. Back in 2018 Trump launched a trade war with China. Tariffs hit, China retaliated, soybeans collapsed.

The same story is playing out again. Trump talked about trade deficits and “standing up to China.” Farmers carried the cost.

brazil steps in

While U.S. farmers watched their markets disappear, Brazil saw an opening. It cleared huge swaths of rainforest and planted soybeans. Over the last decade it lost land the size of South Carolina.

In 2024 alone fires burned 10,000 square kilometers. That’s an entire Connecticut turned into farmland.

Brazil didn’t just grow more soy. It became China’s most reliable partner.

china builds its own grain highway

China locked in that partnership. State-owned giant COFCO spent $285 million building a massive export terminal in Santos, Brazil. It’s now one of the largest outside China.

That move secured Beijing’s long-term supply. The old lifeline from Iowa to Shanghai has been replaced by a new one through the Amazon.

the collapse of US farm exports

For farmers here the collapse is brutal. Exports have tanked. Bankruptcies are rising fast.

Three years running, costs to farm have matched or exceeded revenue. Farmers are burning through savings, piling on new debt, and selling equipment at fire-sale prices.

Tariffs cut two ways. They kill demand abroad and they raise costs at home. Fertilizer prices are up. Cash flow is down.

bankruptcies surge in 2025

Markets have moved to Brazil. China has built its own supply chain. Once those links are in place they don’t come back.

Farm towns across America are feeling the shock. Banks, equipment dealers, small businesses — all of them tied to agriculture — are under stress.

The truth is sinking in. The world doesn’t need U.S. soybeans the way it used to. And the future of American farming may never look the same.